Hurricane Dolly made landfall a little after noontime Wednesday as a Category 2 storm with maximum sustained winds of 100 mph. This really came as no surprise to Heath and I, if you were watching our weathercasts leading up to landfall. We both had a hunch the storm could reach Cat. 2 strength, despite the official NHC forecast of 85 mph, then 90 mph at landfall. The eye of the hurricane made a jog northward before coming ashore at South Padre Island. The image here shows the eye’s track during the midday period Wednesday. This just goes to show that the official track and intensity forecasts from the NHC are not perfect and probably never will be. Forecasting tropical cyclones is difficult, so monitoring the storms on a minute-by-minute basis leading up to landfall is important. Remember that the next time as storm approaches Acadiana. Dolly was about 15 miles due east of the Texas/Mexico border, but ended up coming ashore about 25 miles north of there.

Hurricane Dolly was a Category 2 Hurricane with maximum sustained winds at 100 mph as of the 10 AM update. The satellite image above shows a healthy hurricane just after winds were estimated at 100 mph sustained. She should make landfall over the next few hours as a Category 2 Hurricane. Once Dolly makes landfall, she will be the strongest hurricane to hit the United States since Wilma back in 2005. As a 11 AM the center of Hurricane Dolly was about 35 miles northeast of Brownsville, TX. For us across Acadiana, we will see scattered showers and storms through the afternoon with winds at about 10-15 mph out of the east-southeast. Dolly did spread some clouds into Acadiana yesterday and we saw a gorgeous sunset because of the mid and high level clouds. I managed to take of picture of the sunset just before it got dark. Check it out below. The rain chances will go down tomorrow and through the weekend. The temperatures will go up with highs Friday through the weekend in the mid to upper 90s.

The National Hurricane Center upgraded Dolly to a hurricane with 75 mph maximum winds in their 4 PM advisory on Tuesday. Movement continues to the northwest, but the forward speed has slowed, as expected, to around 10 mph. On this track, landfall will occur during the morning/midday period Wednesday along the Mexico/Texas border. The official forecast calls for max sustained winds at 90 mph at landfall, making Dolly a strong Category 1 hurricane. There is some chance of the cyclone intensifying to a Cat. 2 storm, but there are some inhibiting factors. While warm water and favorable upper-level winds have helped aid development, the upper-level winds are not ideal. The best outflow is located to the northeast, while outflow to the south and west is being hampered by weak upper-level lows in those directions.

Still, Hurricane Dolly will be a potent storm when she roars ashore with winds gusting over 100 mph, rain to the tune of several inches, or more in higher elevations, plus a storm surge of 4-6′ above normal tides. We’re getting the fringe effects in Acadiana, including scattered showers, SE winds of 10-20 mph, and tides running a few feet above normal, leading to some minor coastal flooding. By the way, we’re also watching another tropical wave off the coast of Africa, near the Cape Verde Islands, that may organize in the coming days. Beware: the most-active part of the hurricane season is fast-approaching!

Tropical Storm Dolly appears poised to rapidly strengthen overnight and into Tuesday. The late Monday afternoon visible satellite imagery shows a well-defined circulation with deep convection firing around the southern semi-circle. If the convection wraps around the center, look for the pressure to drop and the winds to increase. The National Hurricane Center forecast takes the storm to a Category 1 hurricane by later Tuesday, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see Dolly strengthen even more. Upper-level winds are increasingly becoming more-favorable for development and the water is quite warm, averaging around 84 degrees. The computer model tracks are clustered towards South Texas.

The models not only agree on track, but intensity, also. Here’s a look, but remember…the actual intensity may eclipse what the models are advertising…

With the track of Dolly remaining well to our southwest, we won’t see any detrimental effects from the storm. Instead, beneficial rainfall is quite likely across Acadiana as scattered showers and thunderstorms develop Tuesday and Wednesday. Winds will increase a bit from the southeast, averaging 10-15 mph. We’ll also see higher-than-normal tides as the surge from Dolly increases sea levels by a couple feet, which may lead to minor flooding of coastal roads in Cameron Parish.

After about two weeks of watching this tropical wave, The National Hurricane Center upgraded the system to a tropical storm today. Right now Tropical Storm Dolly is located about 265 southeast of Cozumel, Mexico. She is moving to the northwest at 14mph. The storm developed a closed low level circulation earlier today, which was key in being upgraded by the National Hurricane Center.

Expect Tropical Storm Dolly to make landfall on Monday as it moves over the Yucatan Peninsula. This will keep the storm from any immediate strengthening while the storm is over land. There could be some quick strengthening, though, once Dolly moves into the southern Gulf of Mexico. The water is very warm in this region. The average water temperature in the southern Gulf are running in the middle 80s. You can find water temperatures for many locations off shore by going to the National Buoy Data Center. It is a good resource to look at during hurricane center and you can get all sorts of weather readings for off shore locations.

The official track takes Dolly into south Texas and Northern Mexico as a category one hurricane. This may seem pretty far from our area, but there are still three days for the track to alter or change. You should monitor the situation closely over the next few days and David, Heath, and I bring you the latest updates on the storm.

The batch of thunderstorms off the southeast US became better organized this weekend. It is the hurricane season’s third named storm. Cristobal formed right off the Georgia and South Carolina coast. The storm is moving northeast though skirting both South Carolina and North Carolina. The projected path moves this storm right along the eastern seaboard. It’s a pretty interesting path because the National Hurricane Center’s official path takes Cristobal into Newfoundland, Canada as a tropical storm. It makes sense though because the storm’s path is right along the Gulf Stream, a warm water ocean current right off the eastern seaboard before it eventually cuts across the ocean and to the north of the British Isles.

The Hurricane Hunters were investigating the tropical wave in the Central Caribbean Friday afternoon and could not find a closed low-level circulation. Still, visible satellite pictures were impressive during the day with deep convection firing around the broad area of low pressure. Upper-level winds will become somewhat more-favorable in the coming days and the development into a tropical depression or tropical storm could really happen at any time.

The computer model tracks are tightly clustered with a general track to the WNW over the next 120 hours.

This track would take the system over the Yucatan Peninsula, which would weaken, or at least prevent, the system from strengthening for that period of time. Once in the Southern Gulf, further development would depend upon upper-level winds and the organization of the low-level circulation. Whether this system develops into a storm or not, deep moisture will push into the Gulf by the early-mid portions of next week. Much of that moisture will work through Acadiana, resulting in numerous showers and thunderstorms from Tuesday through the end of the week. The image below is the 6-hour accumulated precipitation from the GFS model for the 1 PM to 7 PM period on Wednesday.

We could certainly use the moisture on a broad-scale across Acadiana. The past couple weeks have been abnormally dry. Keep checking into TV-10 this weekend and we’ll bring you the latest. And remember, this is just the beginning…tropical activity doesn’t really increase until late-August and September.

I would safely say that is has been a hot July so far across Acadiana. At the Lafayette Regional Airport, we have seen temperatures in the 90s for 13 days in a row and we will more than likely top 90 degrees for the next several days. The highest reading out of those 13 days has been 94 degrees, which we have reached twice. The last time we saw a temperature below 90 degrees was July 4th, and on that day it was 89. The average high for this time of year is about 91 degrees, so we have been at or just above average for most of the month of July. As for Acadiana Regional Airport, there has been a temperature reading of 90 or higher for the last 13 days, too, but the highest temperature reading there has been 95 degrees, which has been reached twice this month. We are right in the middle of summer, so this is expected, but I am looking forward to the less humid, cooler days of fall, which will probably roll around in about three months. Have a good weekend and stay cool.