We’re tracking a tropical wave with a broad area of low pressure located around Western Cuba. This moisture will move into the Central Gulf by Wednesday with moisture reaching the LA coast by Thursday. Offshore interests should be watching this closely as some models show a tropical storm in the Northern Gulf by Friday/Saturday. Coastal areas especially should see some good rainfall from Friday-Monday. Too early to say how much tropical organization we may see, but this wave is definitely on the way to the Gulf where water temps are in the upper 80s. Here is the NAM model from Tuesday morning, which tends to be too aggressive with tropical development. If this were to verify, we’d be looking at a strong system just to our south by Friday evening.
Meanwhile, the GFS model from Tuesday morning is also showing a potent low, but holds off significant development until later in the weekend (this is valid at 1 PM Sunday).
Bottom line here – stay tuned! We’ll keep watching the tropical wave and once tropical development begins, the models will do a better job depicting the future path and strength. What you need to know now is that a tropical wave is poised to move into the Gulf later this week and may very well develop.