The visible satellite shot above shows the exposed low-level circulation of the tropical wave around the Turks and Caicos Wednesday. There is a weak area of low pressure evident, unlike Tuesday, but development, if any, will be a slow process. An upper-level low off to the northwest is imparting a lot of shear on the tropical wave, prohibiting development. Those winds at 20,000 to 30,000 feet are limiting deep convection from forming around the ill-defined center.

The upper-level low will gradually move to the west-southwest over the coming days, as the tropical wave pinwheels around and moves to the west-northwest. That will bring scattered showers and thunderstorms to South Florida on Friday, with the disturbance to move into the Eastern Gulf over the weekend. We will see some moisture from this system by Sunday, with more rain into Monday. Tropical development is certainly possible, but not likely at this point. There’s a chance the wind shear will be too strong over the coming days for the weak low-level circulation to strengthen. We’ll keep monitoring the area. Meanwhile, the tropical wave in the Bay of Campeche has a better chance to develop in the short-term before moving into Mexico. The upper-level winds there are quite favorable, but this disturbance won’t have much time over water before moving inland.