The rainfall Wednesday and early Thursday helped bump up our monthly total. We now have a big surplus, which has been a rarity in recent years. Our average rainfall for the entire month of January is 6.65″, so even if we don’t pick up another drop in Lafayette, we’ll end the month above normal.

It’s good that the rain has retured to Acadiana, but we have seen almost too much this week. Look at the totals over the last few days. All of South Louisiana has received some good rainfall totals. Lafayette is almost two inches above normal for the month, and New Iberia is over an inch and a half above normal for the month. After a dry 2011, this rain is going to be beneficial, especially as we head into the spring months. It does look as though a dry weather pattern will return for the next week or two, but we could use a little time to dry out across Acadiana. We may not see rain again until February.

Many ingredients look to be coming together for an outbreak of severe weather across Texas and Louisiana from Wednesday to Thursday morning.  The action in Acadiana should move in during the evening hours for our western parishes, pushing eastward by daybreak.  Damaging winds look possible, along with isolated tornadoes.  Heavy rain is likely with some of the passing thunderstorms.  Be sure to keep a close eye on TV-10 later Wednesday – we’ll keep you posted on the latest developments and any watches and warnings.

After looking at the latest computer guidance, it looks as though we are still looking at a chance of severe weather late tomorrow night into early Thursday morning. The best chance will be after midnight until about mid-morning Thursday. The main threat will be damaging winds, but tornadoes are possible. Some of the wind shear moves north of Acadiana Thursday morning, so that will limit the tornado threat, but I think the risk is still there.  With this moving in during the early morning hours, the instability in the atmosphere won’t be as high, which is a good thing. More than likely, we will see a tornado watch issued for Acadiana early Thrusday morning. Stay weather aware,and we will watch it closely.

We’ve had steady rainfall this month, with our total thru January 23rd at 4.15″, which is just a touch below-normal.  We’ll likely see the total go above-normal as some rain moves in Tuesday and again Wednesday night.  Some areas could easily pick up over an inch of moisture over the next few days, before some drier weather returns for the weekend.

You can see the cold front that moved through Acadiana this morning very well on the visible satellite. The cold front brought us some showers and storms, but the severe weather stayed well north of Acadiana. Behind the cold front, we will see some cooler air tonight, but that front will lift back north as a warm front tomorrow, giving us a good chance of showers and storms tomorrow afternoon. A strong storm system will move through late Wednesday into early Thursday morning. As that storm system moves through Acadiana, we may see some severe weather. The weather will be much quieter as we head into the weekend,and we will see closer to normal temperatures late this week and into early next week.

In my forecast this morning I discussed a cold front that would stall over the middle portions of Acadiana today and then would lift back out to the northeast never making its way entirely through our area. Meteorologist always talk about fronts and in some cases you can visually see a front when we look at the visble satellite. As you can see in the photo above circled in red is the stalling front, you can see a thin band of thicker clouds and that is the front.

There will be a chance of some severe across some parts of the Deep South tomorrow, but it looks as though it will stay north of Acadina. There will be some instability in the atmosphere tomorrow across Acadiana, but it looks as though most of the upper level energy will pass north of our area. The better wind shear will be north of us. The best chance of severe weather will stretch fr0m Alabama over to the Carolinas. As a cold front approaches from the north tomorrow, we will see a few showers and storms, and we may see an isolated strong to severe storm.

We saw a little winter again yesterday and this morning, but temperatures were back up into the upper 60s to low 70s this afternoon.  With a south wind staying with us through the weekend, expect temperatures to run well above average this weekend and into early next week. Along with warm temperatures, we will see humidity as well. Many cold fronts have moved through Acadiana  this winter, but the cold air just doesn’t stay long. Looking out for the rest of the month, it looks as though temperatures will run above average.  More than likely, this will go down as a mild winter unless we see a big pattern change. The chances of snow  are looking less and less likely for this winter.

If you’ve been thinking this winter is much milder than last winter, you are correct!  I examined the stats at Lafayette from December 1 – January 18 of this winter and last.  This winter we have seen 21 days at or above 70° during that span, compared to just 12 days a year ago.  Our coldest temperature this winter has been 28°, back on December 8.  Last winter our coldest temp was a reading of 21° on January 11.  A big factor has been the Arctic Oscillation, which has been predominantly in a positive phase, keeping low pressure, and thus, the Arctic air, locked up around the Arctic Circle.  In previous winters the AO went strongly negative as high pressure developed over the North Pole, sending frigid air southward.  That is just not happening this winter.  I will mention, however, the long-range computer models are hinting at the AO turning negative later this month, sending perhaps the coldest air of winter moving into the U.S. during the first week of February and that could bring us a decent chill, but overall, the mild pattern we’ve seen this winter should generally be the rule.