The tropical disturbance near Hispaniola Friday evening is offering some forecast challenges. I’ve marked the steering currents in the atmosphere with the white arrows, with a couple track scenarios in yellow. There is a potential track to the north between the two big areas of high pressure. However, if this system isn’t turned northward over the weekend, the energy may slowly drift towards South Florida during the first half of next week. The Bahamas and Florida should definitely be on alert. The next named storm will be Cristobal.
Watching a tropical wave in the Atlantic.
The tropical wave in the Atlantic Ocean appears to be gradually organizing. The upper-level winds are rather favorable, so if the lower-level circulation can organize, we’ll have a tropical system on our hands. The general motion will be to the west-northwest through the weekend, which will take the disturbance over the mountainous islands of the Caribbean, which will inhibit strengthening. Next week there is much uncertainty regarding the track. Some of the main computer models show a tropical system anywhere from South Florida to east of the Bahamas, while another model just shows a weak circulation in the Gulf. If you see specific landfall model projections from other sources, keep in mind there is no way to pinpoint a track this far out. Any impact to the Gulf Coast wouldn’t be until later next week, so we have plenty of time to observe this. Just know there is a tropical wave out there that’s worth watching, so keep checking back. Late-August usually features an increase in tropical activity and this year looks no different.
Visible satellite at 2:30 PM on 8/19/14.
If you’re a loyal viewer, you know I’ve been tracking the tropical waves coming off the coast of Africa since last week. This one in particular really bears watching over the next several days. There appears to be a little organization Tuesday and this may develop into a tropical cyclone over the next couple days. Given the steering currents in the atmosphere, the disturbance will move to the west-northwest. Will it curve north and stay in the Atlantic, or move more westward and into the Gulf? Too early to say, but this is the time of year we really need to watch the Atlantic Basin, so keep checking in for the latest over the days ahead.
May 1 – August 11 stats at Lafayette, LA.
Here are some interesting weather statistics at Lafayette for the period from May 1 through August 11. The average temperature was-1.4° compared to normal, while total rainfall was +10.09″ compared to normal. Some changes are on the horizon, though, as the second half of August looks to turn hotter and drier.
Rare July cold front to bring drier air.
July cold fronts in Acadiana are usually extremely rare, but the third one of July 2014 arrives Tuesday morning. A few showers are possible with the passing front, followed by lowering humidity levels for Tuesday afternoon. Wednesday will feature the driest air with dew points in the lower to middle 60s, as compared to the muggy middle 70s of Monday afternoon. We’ll see rain chances return for Thursday and Friday. Enjoy the break!
Another shot of cool air.
A third cold front in July for South Louisiana?!?! Yes, as hard as it may be to believe, another potent cold front will push southward across the eastern 2/3 of the country for the last week of the month. The front looks to pass Acadiana on Tuesday, dropping our dew point from the muggy 70s into the much more pleasant 60s by Wednesday morning. The break from the high summertime humidity may stick around for a few days, so there’s good news ahead!
Hurricane Arthur makes landfall.
The first Category 2 hurricane since Hurricane Ike in 2008 made landfall late Thursday evening near Cape Lookout, North Carolina. Hurricane Arthur came ashore with maximum sustained winds of 100 mph after strengthening steadily on Thursday. The Outer Banks will feel the brunt of the storm throughout the night before Arthur moves off to the northeast and eventually transitions to a non-tropical system due to the cooler waters of the North Atlantic.
Tropical Storm Arthur.
The first named storm of the 2014 Atlantic Hurricane Season is on the move. Tropical Storm Arthur had maximum sustained winds of 70 mph as of 10 PM CDT on July 2, moving to the north. A turn to the northeast is likely Thursday as the system becomes a hurricane. The Outer Banks of North Carolina may be significantly impacted early Friday morning, before Arthur moves to the northeast over the Atlantic.
US Tornadoes 2014
Tornadoes are possible across the country’s mid-section Tuesday evening along a distinct warm front. We are actually due to see more tornadoes this severe weather season as the total so far in 2014 is as low as it’s been at this point of the year since 2005. That may change over the next 24 hours, but so far, 2014 has been a below-normal severe weather year.
Doppler Radar Estimated Rainfall, May 28, 2014
Here’s a look at Doppler radar estimated rainfall totals from Wednesday morning. The bulls-eye area is from Jennings to Lafayette along I-10. At the airport in Lafayette, 6.86″ fell in just nine hours between 2:00 and 11:00 AM. This was all caused by an upper-level area of low pressure to our northwest helping tap deep moisture from the Gulf of Mexico. Below is an animation of the heavy rain event, which in some spots dropped about 10-15% of our average annual rainfall in under 12 hours!