Well, this is a no-brainer, considering we’re talking about the highest temperatures of the year thus far! We hit 98° back in June, but we’ll begin August with highs reaching or exceeding the century mark. Most of us will see highs in the upper 90s Saturday, while we reach 98° to 102° Sunday. Heat index values will reach 110° or slightly higher with dew point temperatures running in the lower 70s. This kind of heat is dangerous if you’re spending any extended time outdoors. Drink plenty of water to keep yourself hydrated and make sure to take frequent breaks if you’re working outside. The heat will last thru next week with highs remaining in the upper 90s.

We are very fortunate that Bonnie didn’t have much time to strengthen over the Gulf last weekend. We can thank upper level shear for ripping her apart. The image above is the area of low pressure that was Bonnie. I meant to show and blog this earlier in the week, but I never had a chance. On the visible satellite image above you can clearly see a little swirl of clouds where the arrow is pointing…the remnants of Bonnie. I saved this image Sunday afternoon. It moved right over Acadiana with scattered showers and storms with  hardly any wind at all. We got lucky, but it did give us a chance to practice for a bigger storm, which we hope we don’t see. Right now the tropics are quiet, but the peak of hurricane season won’t roll around for another month and a half. Hopefully, it will remain quiet around here. For now, we are going to deal with a heat wave over the next week or so.

The hi-res visible satellite shot above is from Tuesday, July 27. Notice there is still oil visible on the surface of the Gulf of Mexico from the Deepwater Horizon disaster, mainly from the wellhead northward. The oil appears as streaks of white in this image. Skimmers are working under favorable conditions this week to clean up the mess, after dealing with the threat of Bonnie late last week and over the weekend. While the oil is not leaking like it did for so many days, there is still plenty out there, plus some that is certainly still rising to the surface from below. At least the heavy rainfall we’ve experienced over Acadiana thus far this week is not extending too far east. With mainly dry and hot weather on tap for the coming days, hopefully we’ll notice less and less oil on the surface of the Gulf.

With some moisture left behind from what was Bonnie and an upper level disturbance moving across the Gulf, we will see good rain chances for the next few days. The best chance of rain will be today, then the rain chances will go down late in the week. The atmosphere has plenty of moisture to work with, so rainfall could be heavy at times, and the storms will have vivid lightning associated with them. A large area of high pressure aloft will build back in late in the week, so that’s why the rain chances will decrease then, and with that large area of high pressure building back into Acadiana, the temperatures will go back up into the mid to upper 90s late in the week.  Highs early this week will be close to normal,  but they will be well above normal by Thursday and Friday. The heat index late this week will be between 105-108.  Right now the weekend looks hot and dry.

With Bonnie blown out, Acadiana can breath easy knowing that the tropics are tranquil for the time being. I was talking with Trooper Stephen Hammons on Saturday and he was saying that Bonnie put everyone on their toes and gave them a good dress rehearsal for a storm that might actually intensify. The peak of hurricane season is in the end of August and beginning of September, so now is the time to prepare. Go grab a pack of bottled water, canned goods and some batteries next time you’re at the store while the tropics are still quiet. We are still anticipating a busy hurricane season.

Tropical Storm Bonnie is born in the Southern Bahamas Thursday evening. The Hurricane Hunters found surface winds of 40 mph and the NHC upgraded the system with a special statement at 5:15 PM CDT. Movement is to the NW at around 15 mph. A large upper-level low is located to the west of the disturbance, which is preventing rapid strengthening. While there is a very well-defined low-level circulation, dry air is found just to the west of the center and strong winds aloft are keeping convection confined mainly to the northeast and north of the center. However, further organization appears likely. The upper-level low will move to the WSW, while Bonnie moves to the WNW to NW. The steering currents will put the tropical cyclone on a path that encompasses Southeast and South-Central Louisiana, with rain becoming widespread on Sunday. Due to expected wind shear and less-than-ideal winds aloft, some computer models bring the system to max intensity on Friday, before crossing South Florida, with weakening to follow as the system moves over the Gulf. There is definitely some uncertainty regarding the strength of the disturbance as it moves towards the Louisiana Coast, but at this point, the odds of a hurricane appear small. Rain will likely be the biggest impact, especially Sunday and Monday. We’ll keep tracking the third tropical system of the 2010 season.

We now have tropical depression three northwest of Cuba with winds at 35 mph. This depression may become Tropical Storm Bonnie soon. It’s moving to the west-northwest and should make it into the Gulf sometime tomorrow. The track right now has it making landfall across the western portions of the state Sunday as a tropical storm. Conditions will be favorable for strengthening once it gets to the Gulf, so we will watch it closely. It is going to move beneath a large area of high pressure aloft, which  is over the Deep South right now, but as that high moves north over the weekend, it will allow this tropical system to turn north. There is a chance it good develop into a hurricane before making landfall. Now is the time to prepare in case it moves toward Acadiana. We will watch it closely.

The visible satellite shot above shows the exposed low-level circulation of the tropical wave around the Turks and Caicos Wednesday. There is a weak area of low pressure evident, unlike Tuesday, but development, if any, will be a slow process. An upper-level low off to the northwest is imparting a lot of shear on the tropical wave, prohibiting development. Those winds at 20,000 to 30,000 feet are limiting deep convection from forming around the ill-defined center.

The upper-level low will gradually move to the west-southwest over the coming days, as the tropical wave pinwheels around and moves to the west-northwest. That will bring scattered showers and thunderstorms to South Florida on Friday, with the disturbance to move into the Eastern Gulf over the weekend. We will see some moisture from this system by Sunday, with more rain into Monday. Tropical development is certainly possible, but not likely at this point. There’s a chance the wind shear will be too strong over the coming days for the weak low-level circulation to strengthen. We’ll keep monitoring the area. Meanwhile, the tropical wave in the Bay of Campeche has a better chance to develop in the short-term before moving into Mexico. The upper-level winds there are quite favorable, but this disturbance won’t have much time over water before moving inland.

Here’s just a quick update on the latest computer model tracks for the tropical disturbance north of Puerto Rico. We’ll have much more on Wednesday.

Expect typical July weather for the rest of the week with highs in the low to mid 90s and low rain chances. We saw some soakers yesterday and over the weekend, but it looks as though some drier air will work its way into the atmosphere , limiting the rain chances over the next few days. As high pressure aloft works its way back into Acadiana, the temperatures will go back up into the mid 90s this weekend with rain chances below 10%. The heat index each day for the next week will range from 100-105. We are watching a tropical wave near Puerto Rico that is of some interest. David did a blog on that last night. The models do push that toward the Gulf of Mexico over the next five days. We will keep out eye on that. It does look as though some of the moisture from that system may make it way into Acadiana next week.